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We are biased to believe that we are better than everyone else. If confidence is good, then overconfidence must be… ”All you need in life is ignorance and confidence, then success is sure” Mark Twain “The game is over”, said Mohammed al Douri, Iraq’s ambassador to the UN in April 2003. After only three weeks…
Confirmation bias is hard to see When confirmation bias locks you on to a dangerous path ”We don’t believe the world we see; we see the world, we believe” The Matrix Monday, September 23, 2013 CEO Thorsten Heins faced one of the biggest decisions in his professional life: Should he end several years of financial…
Bounded awareness allow razor sharp focus – but it also means tunnel vision, so you do not see, what is just outside your field of focus. When bounded awareness narrows our vision ””Facts matter not at all. Perception is everything. It’s certainty” Steven Colbert On 28 January 1986, all employees at the Kennedy Space Center…
95% of our 35,000 daily decisions are taken subconsciously by our system 1 How does our brain wreak havoc on strategy? ”When faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead” Daniel Kahneman Christine, who is a director of a mid-sized media company, is in doubt whether to fire Anna, the marketing director. In…
This is a series of core points from our book, Decision Strategy. It won 5th place in global management books in 2016. Why do we need Behavioural Strategy? ”Take a simple idea, then take it seriously” Warren Buffet The last 50 years we have witnessed a revolution in strategic thinking. Ground-breaking work of great thinkers…
The towels were so thick there I could hardly close my suitcase. Yogi Berra, Baseball athlete & accidental satirist You lie, steal and cheat all the time. Well not you of course – just everybody you have ever met. Some more than others though. Or at least they are the ones who get caught:) So…
“It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing that he was never reasoned into.” Jonathan Swift, Author Have you noticed how some days your ideas are just all approved by your manager and other times none of them? You probably put the same effort and approach into them, yet the…
“If there is a 50-50 chance that something will go wrong, then 9 times out of ten it will.” Paul Harvey, Journalist If someone approaches you with a bet of USD 100 at a flip of a coin – if you win you get 100 and if you lose you pay 100, then you are…
“A very disturbing feature of overconfidence is that it often appears to be poorly associated with knowledge – that is, the more ignorant the individual, the more confident he or she might be.” Robert Trivers, Sociobioligist Duke University has been asking CFOs of large companies over a number of years to assess the return on…
“If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything.” Ronald Coase, Professor in Economics at Chicago Business School The power of your brain never ceases to amaze me. You make snap decisions on very little real content and instead respond disproportionally to authoritativeness and approachability. You jump to superficial and quite stable…
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